Global| Dec 14 2018U.S. Retail Sales Start Holiday Season on Solid Ground
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers continued to exhibit their inclination to spend as holiday shopping got underway. Total retail sales rose 0.2% during November (4.9% y/y) following a 1.1% October jump, revised from 0.8%. The latest increase matched [...]
Consumers continued to exhibit their inclination to spend as holiday shopping got underway. Total retail sales rose 0.2% during November (4.9% y/y) following a 1.1% October jump, revised from 0.8%. The latest increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales gained 0.2% (5.7% y/y) after a 1.0% increase, revised from 0.7%. A 0.3% improvement had been expected.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales surged 0.9% (5.2% y/y) and built on a 0.7% October gain, revised from 0.3%.
Strength in sales was notable for online retailers whose sales increased 2.3% (12.1% y/y) following two months of strong gain. Purchases at electronics & appliance stores similarly were firm as they rose 1.4% (5.0% y/y), about as they did during the prior month. Furniture & home furnishings store sales grew 1.2% (2.9% y/y) after a moderate decline. General merchandise store sales gained 0.4% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales also improved 0.4% (-7.8% y/y) following a 1.1% increase. Motor vehicle & parts dealership sales gained 0.2% (1.4% y/y) even as unit motor vehicle sales eased 0.2% m/m.
Reflecting lower prices, gasoline service station sales declined 2.3% (+8.7% y/y) after a 3.2% jump. Also working lower were clothing & accessory store sales by 0.2% (+4.1% y/y) after two months of firm increase. Building materials & garden equipment store sales also were weak. They fell 0.3% (+3.5% y/y) on the heels of a 1.5% strengthening.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were firm last month. Health & personal care product store sales increased 0.9% (3.6% y/y) after falling for three straight months. Food & beverage store sales gained 0.4% (3.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
Eating out was less in vogue during November as restaurant & drinking establishment sales declined 0.5% after a 0.6% increase, revised up from a moderate decline. Sales have lost forward momentum, however, as the 6.9% y/y increase moderated from 10.9% y/y growth just three months earlier.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.2 | 1.5 | -0.0 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -2.3 | 3.2 | -1.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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