Global| Apr 15 2021U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Strength is broad-based as consumers venture into stores. • Durable goods are notably firm. • Earlier months' data were little-revised. Improved weather, a strong employment gain, $1,400 stimulus checks and store re-openings [...]
• Strength is broad-based as consumers venture into stores.
• Durable goods are notably firm.
• Earlier months' data were little-revised.
Improved weather, a strong employment gain, $1,400 stimulus checks and store re-openings combined to bolster consumer spending last month. Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March after declining 2.7% in February, revised from -3.0%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 5.4% rise. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts surged 8.4% last month (19.4% y/y) after falling 2.5% in February, revised from -2.7%. A 4.6% March rise had been expected.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, rose 6.9% last month (14.2% y/y) after falling 3.4% in February.
Motor vehicle purchases surged 15.1% in March (71.1% y/y) following a 3.5% February decline. The rise compares to a 12.6% strengthening (58.7% y/y) in unit sales of light vehicles. General merchandise store sales jumped 9.0% last month (4.6% y/y) after falling in four of the previous five months. Department store sales recovered 13.0% (25.6% y/y) after falling 7.6% in February. Clothing & accessory store sales jumped 18.3% (101.1% y/y) after falling 5.5%. Furniture & home furnishings sales improved 5.9% (46.8% y/y) following a 4.7% decline while sales of electronics & appliances rose 10.5% (28.5% y/y) after falling 1.9% in February. Nonstore retail sales improved 6.0% (28.7% y/y) after declining 4.4% in February. Sporting goods, hobby and book store sales recovered 23.5% (73.5% y/y) after a 6.9% decline.
Building materials sales rose 12.1% (29.4% y/y) after falling 2.8% in February. Reflecting higher prices, gasoline service station sales rose 10.9% (34.8% y/y), the fourth straight month of strong increase.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, grocery & beverage store sales improved 0.7% last month (-11.8% y/y) after easing 0.3% in the prior month. Health & personal care store sales increased 5.7% (5.5% y/y) following a 1.1% decline.
Sales at restaurants and drinking establishments posted a 13.4% rise (36.0% y/y) in March after falling 1.8% in February.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 9.8 | -2.7 | 7.7 | 27.7 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Excluding Autos | 8.4 | -2.5 | 8.4 | 19.4 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Retail Sales | 9.4 | -2.8 | 7.4 | 26.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 7.8 | -2.6 | 8.2 | 17.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 15.1 | -3.5 | 5.0 | 71.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| Food & Beverage Stores | 0.7 | -0.3 | 2.1 | -11.8 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Gasoline Service Stations | 10.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 34.8 | -15.6 | -0.5 | 9.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places | 13.4 | -1.8 | 9.6 | 36.0 | -19.3 | 4.6 | 5.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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