Global| Feb 14 2020U.S. Retail Sales Rise Steadily
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales including food service establishments increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during January following a 0.2% December gain, revised from 0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail [...]
Total retail sales including food service establishments increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during January following a 0.2% December gain, revised from 0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts also rose an expected 0.3% (4.0% y/y) last month after a 0.6% increase in December, revised from 0.7%.
Retail sales alone edged 0.1% higher (4.0% y/y) following no change last month, which was revised from 0.4%. A 3.1% decline (0.0% y/y) in apparel store sales weakened the result as it followed December's 2.7% jump. A 2.1% (-1.3% y/y) rise in building materials store sales offset most of this weakening. Motor vehicles purchases improved 0.2% (5.7% y/y) as unit sales of light vehicles (reported earlier this month) rose 1.1%. Nonstore retail sales increased 0.3% (8.4% y/y) after four straight months of decline. General merchandise store sales rose 0.5% (2.1% y/y), up for the fourth straight month. Furniture & home furnishings store sales improved 0.6% (1.8% y/y) following a 1.6% decline, but electronics & appliance store sales eased 0.5% (-3.2% y/y), and reversed December's rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales gained 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) following little change.
Gasoline & service station sales eased 0.5% (+10.4% y/y) as gasoline prices declined.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & grocery store sales improved 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after rising 0.5% in December. Sales of health & personal care product stores offset this gain with a 0.4% decline (-1.9% y/y), and they've been declining steadily since the middle of last year.
Restaurant sales increased 1.2% (7.4% y/y), the same as in December, which was revised from 0.2%.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Retail Sales | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.2 | -1.7 | 1.6 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| Gasoline Service Stations | -0.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 10.4 | 0.4 | 12.6 | 8.9 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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