Global| Sep 13 2019U.S. Retail Sales Rise as Online Sales Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer spending remains on a positive track. Total retail sales rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) during August following a 0.8% July gain, revised from a 0.7%. June's increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. A 0.2% August gain had been expected [...]
Consumer spending remains on a positive track. Total retail sales rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) during August following a 0.8% July gain, revised from a 0.7%. June's increase was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. A 0.2% August gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts held steady last month (3.5% y/y) after surging an unrevised 1.0% in July. June's 0.3% rise was revised from 0.4%. Expectations had been for a 0.1% uptick.
Online sales jumped again. Sales via the internet strengthened 1.6% (16.0% y/y). The rise followed a 1.7% July increase and even larger gains during the prior two months.
Auto sales also were strong last month. They posted a 1.8% increase (6.8% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Last month's strength stemmed from a 1.1% m/m rise in unit sales of motor vehicles.
Purchases at building materials & garden equipment stores rounded out last month's strength with a 1.4% increase (1.0% y/y) which came after a 1.0% rise.
Offsetting these increases was a 0.9% decline (-2.3% y/y) in gasoline service station sales which followed a 1.4% gain. Last month's shortfall reflected a decline in the pump price of gasoline to $2.57 per gallon from $2.72.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rose 0.3% (5.3% y/y) last month. That followed a 0.9% gain in July and a 0.5% June increase.
Offsetting these gains was a 0.5% decline (+0.1% y/y) in sales at furniture & home furnishings stores. It was the third decline in four months. Purchases at apparel & accessory stores were off 0.9% (+0.4% y/y) after a 1.3% rise. Also weak were sales at general merchandise store sales which declined 0.3% (+1.0% y/y) after a 0.7% gain. To the upside were sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores as they improved 0.9% (2.1% y/y) and came after a 1.2% decline.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales eased 0.2% (+4.3% y/y) after a 1.4% rise. Health & personal care product store sales increased 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after easing 0.1% in July.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales declined 1.2% last month (+1.1% y/y) after six consecutive months of strong gain.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.9 | 1.4 | -2.5 | -2.3 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -1.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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