Global| Dec 13 2012U.S. Retail Sales Restrained By Lower Gas Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales recovered 0.3% last month following an unrevised 0.3% October decline. A 0.4% rise November sales had been expected according to Action Economics. Retail sales were unchanged excluding autos, as expected, for the [...]
Total retail sales recovered 0.3% last month following an unrevised 0.3% October decline. A 0.4% rise November sales had been expected according to Action Economics. Retail sales were unchanged excluding autos, as expected, for the second consecutive month. The mix of sales, however, was more encouraging than these top-line numbers suggest.
Consumers spent less on gasoline last month as prices fell. A 4.0% drop (+0.8% y/y) in gas purchases accompanied a 2.5% decline in seasonally adjusted prices, as calculated by Haver. Also adding to volatility was a 1.4% recovery (5.4% y/y) in motor vehicle sales. Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales rose a notable 0.7% (3.3% y/y) and more than recovered their 0.2% October falloff. Also adding to volatility was a 1.6% rise (5.4% y/y) in sales of building materials. A good indication of consumers' underlying ability to spend on discretionary items are sales without these volatile components. Excluding autos, gas and building materials, retail sales rose a respectable 0.5%. However, the 2.9% y/y increase was lower than the peak y/y gain of 7.1%, ending October of last year.Sales of home furnishings, appliances and electronics jumped 1.7% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.7% October decline. Appliance and electronics purchases gained 2.5% (-1.0% y/y) while furniture store sales increased 1.0% (6.2% y/y). Sales of apparel & accessory stores gained 0.9% (6.4% y/y), the strongest m/m increase in six months. Working the other way were general merchandise purchases, down 0.9% (-2.7% y/y) and negative for the third straight month. Food & beverages store sales slipped 0.3 (+2.9% y/y) but sales of nonstore retailers jumped 3.0% (11.1% y/y).
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | -7.1 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | -5.7 |
| Retail Sales | 0.2 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 5.8 | -7.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.4 | -1.9 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 10.8 | -13.9 |
| Retail excluding Autos | -0.1 | -0.0 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 7.6 | 4.7 | -6.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -4.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 17.9 | 14.7 | -22.0 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | -3.4 |
| Food Service | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.2 | -0.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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