Global| Jul 14 2011U.S. Retail Sales Remain Lethargic
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail & food service sales inched up 0.1% last month following a -0.1% slip during May and a 0.2% April rise, earlier reported as -0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The June decline roughly matched Consensus expectations for no- [...]
Total retail & food service sales inched up 0.1% last month following a -0.1% slip during May and a 0.2% April rise, earlier reported as -0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The June decline roughly matched Consensus expectations for no-change, according to the Action Economics survey. During the last three months, sales rose at a 0.9% annual rate versus a 6.4% increase during all of last year. Excluding autos, sales were unchanged. A 0.1% gain had been expected. During the last three months, nonauto sales rose at a 2.4% annual rate after a 5.7% increase last year.
The recent decline in prices caused gasoline expenditures to decline 1.3%. In addition, sales of motor vehicles gained only 0.8% after supply disruptions due to the earthquake & tsunami in Japan deepened a May drop. Excluding gasoline and autos, retail spending rose 0.3% last month. Three-month growth in sales fell to 3.4%.
Discretionary spending was generally soft in June. Building material store sales, however, jumped another 1.3% (7.8% y/y). Elsewhere, apparel store sales gained just 0.7% (6.5% y/y) after no change during the prior two months. Also, sales at general merchandise outlets rose only 0.4% (4.0% y/y), but that followed two months of no change. Sales of furniture, home furnishings and appliances, off 0.5%, fell for the third straight month. June sales at furniture stores fell 0.8% (+0.5% y/y) while sales at electronics & appliance stores slipped 0.2% (-2.4% y/y). Sales at food service & drinking places fell 0.4% (+4.7% y/y). Even online shopping eased a bit. Sales of non-store retailers rose just 0.3% (12.3% y/y) and earlier gains were revised lower. Currently, sales by electronic shopping & mail-order houses account for roughly ten percent of nonauto retail sales less building materials & gasoline.
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | -7.0 | -1.2 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 7.9 | 5.7 | -5.5 | 2.1 |
| Retail Sales | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | -7.8 | -1.6 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.8 | -1.8 | -0.5 | 8.9 | 10.0 | -13.7 | -14.0 |
| Retail excluding Autos | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 8.4 | 6.1 | -6.3 | 2.1 |
| Gasoline | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 23.6 | 16.8 | -22.2 | 10.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | -3.3 | 0.7 |
| Food Service | -0.4 | 0.8 | -0.9 | 4.7 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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