U.S. Retail Sales Regain Forward Momentum

Total retail and food service sales rose last month by 1.0% following a 0.7% January increase, revised up from 0.3%. Sales have risen for eight consecutive months and the latest increase lifted the y/y increase to 8.9%, the strongest since mid-2005. The February rise beat Consensus expectations for a 0.8% gain, according to the Action Economics survey. During the last three months, sales rose at a 9.7% annual rate versus a 6.5% increase during all of last year. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised January gain. The increase roughly matched expectations for a 0.6% rise. During the last three months, nonauto sales rose at a 6.4% rate after a 5.8% increase last year.

Motor vehicle sales rose another 2.3% and contrasted with the 6.4% increase in unit sales, reported earlier this month. In addition, higher gasoline prices pulled sales of gasoline service stations up another 1.4% and at a 19.5% annual rate since November. Excluding sales of autos and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.5% in February and at a 4.7% annual rate during the last three months.

Discretionary spending amongst other categories was firm. Clothing store sales rose 0.8% (3.8% y/y) after a 0.9% January gain. Sales at general merchandise outlets increased 0.7% (2.6% y/y) and matched the January increase. Building material store sales rose 0.6% but that recouped only half of the weather-induced January decline. Sales at furniture & home furnishing stores remained weak and inched up just 0.1% (-3.0% y/y) after four consecutive months of decline. Sales at electronics & appliance stores rose a 0.9% (-2.2% y/y) but have declined at a 0.8% during the last three months. Sales of non-store retailers slipped 0.3% in February (+12.6% y/y). Currently, sales by electronic shopping & mail-order houses account for roughly ten percent of nonauto retail sales less building materials & gasoline. Finally, sales at food service & drinking places jumped 1.3% (3.8% y/y).

The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.

Retail Spending (%)	Feb	Jan	Dec	Feb Y/Y	2010	2009	2008
Total Retail Sales & Food Services	1.0	0.7	0.6	8.9	6.5	-6.4	-1.0
Excluding Autos	0.7	0.6	0.3	6.0	5.8	-5.1	2.3
Retail Sales	0.9	0.8	0.7	9.5	6.9	-7.1	-1.4
Motor Vehicle & Parts	2.3	1.2	2.3	23.7	10.3	-12.1	-13.9
Retail excluding Autos	0.6	0.7	0.3	6.3	6.2	-5.9	2.3
Gasoline	1.4	1.3	1.8	12.9	16.2	-24.7	9.9
Non-Auto Less Gasoline	0.5	0.6	0.0	5.3	4.8	-2.4	1.0
Food Service	1.2	0.1	0.2	3.8	2.9	0.5	2.4