Global| Aug 13 2015U.S. Retail Sales Recovery Accompanied by Upward Revisions
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during July increased 0.6% (2.9% y/y). The rise followed upwardly-revised readings of no change and 1.2% in June and May, earlier reported as a 0.3% decline and a 1.0% [...]
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during July increased 0.6% (2.9% y/y). The rise followed upwardly-revised readings of no change and 1.2% in June and May, earlier reported as a 0.3% decline and a 1.0% gain. The July rise matched the increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos improved an expected 0.4% (1.7% y/y) following a like gain during June and a 1.0% May increase, revised from -0.1% and +0.8%. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP.
Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping improved 0.3% (3.6% y/y) after gains of 0.2% and 0.8%, earlier reported as a 0.1% decline and a 0.7% rise.
Building materials & garden equipment sales increased 0.7% (2.2% y/y) following two months of 0.2% improvement. Light motor vehicle sales increased 1.4% (7.2% y/y) and made up June's decline. The rise compared to a 3.3% increase in unit sales of cars and light trucks.
In other discretionary spending categories, internet sales recovered 1.5% (6.9% y/y) after a 0.2% dip. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales increased 0.9% (7.7% y/y) and more than made up a 0.3% dip. Sales of furniture & home furnishings increased 0.8% (6.6% y/y) following a 1.0% decline. Restaurant sales increased 0.7% (9.8% y/y) after a 0.5% rise and apparel store sales increased 0.4% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.9% drop. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.4% (-14.6% y/y) following two months of strong gain. To the downside, purchases at electronics & appliance stores fell 1.2% (-2.9% y/y) and reversed the June improvement. General merchandise sales were off 0.5% (+1.5% y/y) after a 0.8% rise.
In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y) following a 0.8% decrease. Food & beverage store sales remained roughly unchanged (3.3% y/y) for the second straight month.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.6 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.4 | -1.5 | 1.9 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline Stations | 0.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | -14.6 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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