Global| Dec 13 2006U.S. Retail Sales Recovered
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
US retail sales last month recovered all of the weakness during the prior three months. Sales rose 1.0% following a 0.1% decline in October and a 0.6% shortfall in September which both were revised slightly shallower. The November [...]
US retail sales last month recovered all of the weakness during the prior three months. Sales rose 1.0% following a 0.1% decline in October and a 0.6% shortfall in September which both were revised slightly shallower. The November increase easily beat Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 0.9% (6.4% y/y) after an upwardly revised 1.0% October gain. New unit vehicle sales, however, fell 0.7% to 16.04M for the third decline in the last four months. Excluding autos, retail sales surged 1.1% after a slightly revised 0.3% October dip.
Sales of some discretionary items recovered. Sales at furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores surged 2.1% (6.7% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% October drop. Also up were building material sales which jumped 1.8% (4.2% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) made up for weakness during the prior three months with a 1.3% (10.1% y/y) jump. 
Restaurant and bar sales rose 0.7% (7.9% y/y) after firm gains during the prior four months.
Still lagging, however, were apparel store sales which fell marginally (+6.7% y/y) after a 0.6% decline during October and, with a 0.4% (3.8% y/y) increase, sales at general merchandise stores recovered an unrevised 0.3% October decline.
Sales at gasoline service stations recovered 2.3% after three months of decline though gasoline prices slipped another 0.7% last month to $2.23 per gallon.Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in November jumped 0.9% (6.4% y/y), triple the 0.3% increases during each of the prior three months. During the last three months these sales rose at a 6.5% annual rate, the best since March.
| November | October | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.0% | -0.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Excluding Autos | 1.1% | -0.3% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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