Global| Apr 14 2015U.S. Retail Sales Rebound Following Three Months of Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The weather improved last month so shoppers exercised their wallets. Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during March increased 0.9% (1.3% y/y) following three straight months of decline. A 1.0% increase had [...]
The weather improved last month so shoppers exercised their wallets. Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during March increased 0.9% (1.3% y/y) following three straight months of decline. A 1.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos gained 0.4% (+0.8% y/y) after little change in February, revised from -0.1%. A 0.6% increase had been expected. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP. Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping increased 0.3% last month (2.4% y/y) after two months of 0.2% decline.
A 2.7% increase in auto sales (5.2% y/y) pulled overall retail spending higher last month as it rebounded from a 2.1% drop. The increase coincides with a 5.6% improvement in unit vehicle sales. Sales of building materials rebounded 2.1% (6.3% y/y) following a 1.8% decline.
Purchases at furniture & home furnishings outlets increased 1.4% (3.8% y/y) after falling in three of the prior four months. Apparel store sales gained 1.2% (2.7% y/y) after three months of weakness. Sales at food service & drinking places rose 0.7% (7.7% y/y) following a 0.2% gain, revised from a 0.6% decline. General merchandise store sales improved 0.6% (0.3% y/y), but that wasn't enough to recover the prior month's 1.9% shortfall. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales increased 0.2% (5.1% y/y) after a 2.6% gain. To the downside, sales at electronics & appliance stores were off 0.5% (-1.9% y/y), off for the fifth month in the last six. Gasoline service station sales fell 0.6% (-22.0% y/y) following a 2.3% rise.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.3% (4.9% y/y) following two months of slight decline. Food & beverage store sales moved 0.5% lower (+2.5% y/y), the second decline in three months.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.9 | -0.5 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | -0.0 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.9 | -0.5 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 2.7 | -2.1 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | -0.1 | -1.4 | -0.9 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.6 | 2.3 | -10.1 | -22.0 | -2.7 | -0.3 | 4.2 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 5.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
