Global| Oct 14 2011U.S. Retail Sales Post A Firm Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer got tired of not spending last month. That's the message from a firm 1.1% increase in September retail & food service sales. It followed an upwardly revised 0.3% August increase, last month reported as unchanged. The [...]
The consumer got tired of not spending
last month. That's the message from a firm 1.1% increase in
September retail & food service sales. It followed an
upwardly revised 0.3% August increase, last month reported as
unchanged. The September gain was double the Consensus expectation
for a 0.5% rise, according to the Action Economics survey. In
another sign of recovery, the three-month increase in sales of 1.9%
(AR) improved on the negligible gains from April to July.
Improved sales of motor vehicles were a big part of last month's spending gain with a 3.6% m/m (8.5% y/y) increase. That compares to the already-reported 8.0% (10.8% y/y) rise in unit sales of motor vehicles. Excluding autos, total retail sales rose 0.6% (7.8% y/y). Expectations had been for a 0.3% rise. To fuel the autos, sales of gasoline also were firm with a 1.2% increase. (Prices rose 1.7% when seasonally adjusted by Haver.) Excluding both autos and gasoline, retail sales increased 0.5% last month (6.0% y/y), about the same as they did during the prior three months.
A 1.3% increase (7.6% y/y) in sales at clothing & accessory stores led last month's gain in retail sales, following two months of moderate decline. Also up were sales at general merchandise stores, by 0.7% (4.5% y/y). Sales of furniture & appliances rose a steady 0.6% (1.5% y/y) powered by a 1.1% increase (3.2% y/y) in furniture. Sales of electronics & appliances rose a weaker 0.2% and were unchanged y/y. Sales of building materials lagged with a 0.1% slip (+6.5% y/y). Finally, sales of food service and drinking places rose 1.2% (6.9% y/y) after much more moderate gains during the prior three months.
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Future of Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 7.9 | 6.4 | -7.0 | -1.2 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | -5.5 | 2.1 |
| Retail Sales | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 8.1 | 6.8 | -7.8 | -1.6 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 3.6 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 10.0 | -13.7 | -14.0 |
| Retail excluding Autos | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8.0 | 6.1 | -6.3 | 2.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 20.3 | 16.9 | -22.2 | 10.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | -2.9 | 0.9 |
| Food Service | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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