Global| Nov 14 2006U.S. Retail: Sales of Discretionary Items & Gasoline Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During October, US retail sales fell for the fourth month in the last five. Last month's 0.2% drop was, however, a bit less than Consensus expectations for a 0.4% decline. Going the other way, September's decline was doubled to -0.8%. [...]
During October, US retail sales fell for the fourth month in the last five. Last month's 0.2% drop was, however, a bit less than Consensus expectations for a 0.4% decline. Going the other way, September's decline was doubled to -0.8%.
Falling gasoline prices accounted for much of the recent sales weakness. Last month gasoline station sales fell 6.0% (-12.5% y/y) after an 11.1% September drop that was deeper than initially reported. Gasoline prices fell 12.1% during October to an average $2.25 per gallon and this month have fallen another 1.3% to $2.22.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 0.6% (10.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.7% September increase, though new unit vehicle sales fell 2.8% to 16.16M much of the difference reflected higher sales of automotive parts & accessories. Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.4% following a deepened 1.2% decline during September.
October nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.3% (5.0% y/y) following a very much downwardly revised 0.2% gain during September.
Sales of discretionary items lost steam. Sales at furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores fell 0.4% (+4.0% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.1% September dip while sales at general merchandise stores fell 0.3% (+3.2% y/y). Also to the downside, for the seventh month this year, were building material sales which fell 0.3% (+1.8% y/y) after a 1.8% September drop that was initially reported as a 1.1% rise.
Rising were apparel store sales by 0.1% (7.6% y/y) after a 2.9% September spike and food service (restaurant) & drinking service sales by 0.3% (7.8% y/y).
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) fell for the third straight month, down 0.1% (8.6% y/y).
The Rise in Homeownership from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| October | September | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2% | -0.8% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.4% | -1.2% | 3.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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