Global| Sep 12 2014U.S. Retail Sales Increase Is Unexpectedly Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail and food service sales improved 0.6% during August (5.0% y/y) following a revised 0.3% July gain, revised from no change. A 0.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales increases were broad- [...]
Retail and food service sales improved 0.6% during August (5.0% y/y) following a revised 0.3% July gain, revised from no change. A 0.5% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales increases were broad-based, led by a 1.5% jump (8.9% y/y) in auto sales. Nonauto sales increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y), beating expectations for a 0.2% rise.
The jump in auto sales followed a 0.6% July increase and was driven by a 6.4% rise (10.0% y/y) in unit auto purchases. Sales in most other discretionary spending categories were firm. Building material purchases increased 1.4% (6.7% y/y) and made up a 0.5% decline. Furniture sales rebounded 0.7% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.1% slip while sales of electronics & appliances also rose 0.7% (1.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Clothing purchases increased 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.9% jump. Sales of nonstore retailers edged 0.1% higher (7.1% y/y) after firm gains between 0.5% and 0.8% in the prior three months. To the downside, sales of general merchandise slipped 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) but that followed a strong 0.4% increase. Gasoline service station sales declined 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) after no change in July.
In the nondiscretionary spending categories, sales at health & personal care stores surged 0.6% (8.1% y/y), the same as in July. Food & beverage stores increased 0.3% (3.6% y/y) following a 0.2% rise.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.5 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 6.9 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline & Building Supplies | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 5.4 |
| Retail Sales | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 7.6 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.5 | 0.6 | -0.0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 4.2 | 18.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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