Global| Jul 15 2014U.S. Retail Sales Gains Are Disappointing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail and food service sales nudged 0.2% higher (4.3% y/y) during June following a 0.5% May rise, revised from 0.3%. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 0.3% [...]
Retail and food service sales nudged 0.2% higher (4.3% y/y) during June following a 0.5% May rise, revised from 0.3%. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 0.3% (6.4% y/y) following strong gains during the prior four months. Outside of auto dealer showrooms sales posted a mixed performance. Nonauto sales less gasoline & building materials gained 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase. A 0.5% rise had been expected.
In other discretionary spending categories, sales of building materials & garden equipment dropped 1.0% (+3.7% y/y) following a 0.6% rise while electronics & appliance store sales fell 0.1% for the second consecutive month (+2.6% y/y). Restaurant sales fell 0.3% (+5.6% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.9% gain. Sales of furniture & appliances were unchanged (1.9% y/y) after a 0.4% fall. To the upside, general merchandise store sales increased 1.1% (3.4% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. Sales of nonstore retailers gained 0.9% (8.1% y/y), improving on a 0.6% rise. Clothing & accessory store sales moved 0.8% higher (2.9% y/y) after a 0.5% rise and sporting goods sales recovered 0.6% (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.5% drop. Sales of electronics & appliances ticked up 0.1% (1.3% y/y) after declines of roughly 0.7% during the prior two months.
In the nondiscretionary spending categories, sales at health & personal care stores gained 0.9% (7.9% y/y), about the same as during the prior four months. Food & beverage stores increased 0.4% (2.5% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.3% rise while gasoline service station sales increased 0.3% (0.6% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.7% rise.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress from the Federal Reserve Board is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 7.5 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 6.9 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline & Building Supplies | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 5.4 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 7.6 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 4.2 | 18.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.3 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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