Global| Sep 14 2006U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light; Gasoline Prices Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline. Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in [...]
In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in July.Behind the modest m/m gain was a 6.5% decline in unit vehicle sales to 16.06M, the lowest sales rate this year.
Excluding autos, retail sales also rose just 0.2% after a downwardly revised 0.6% July increase. Consensus expectations had been for nonauto retail sales to rise 0.3% last month.
Sales at gasoline stations also fell a hard 1.0% (+11.0% y/y) as gasoline prices fell during August 1.0% m/m to an average $2.95 per gallon. Gasoline prices have since fallen further to $2.62 per gallon last week.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.4% (7.0% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.5% August increase.
Sales of discretionary items were moderate last month. Furniture, electronics & appliances slipped 0.1% (+5.9% y/y) after July gain of 0.3% that was revised down from 1.2% reported initially. General merchandise stores rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y), better than the little-revised 0.2% July increase but apparel store sales fell 0.3% (+6.6% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) rose 0.3% (12.5% y/y) after a little revised 2.1% July spike.
Building material sales increased 0.1% (8.2% y/y) after a 0.3% July gain that was revised down from 1.9% in the initial report.
Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| August | July | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2% | 1.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2% | 0.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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