Global| Jun 12 2008U.S. Retail Sales Firmed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. retail sales last month were stronger-than-expected, boosted by early receipts of the government's tax rebate checks - $600 per person and $300 per child for families. A 1.0% May jump in sales followed an upwardly revised 0.4% [...]
U.S. retail sales last month were stronger-than-expected, boosted by early receipts of the government's tax rebate checks - $600 per person and $300 per child for families. A 1.0% May jump in sales followed an upwardly revised 0.4% April increase, initially reported as a 0.2% decline. On a three-month basis overall retail sales were down 2.0% (AR).
Sales of motor vehicles & parts ticked up 0.3% (-7.0% y/y) following three months of decline. The increase accompanied a 1.1% decline in unit motor vehicle sales.
Retail sales excluding autos rose 1.2% and the April rise of 1.0% was double last month's estimate. The gain also exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.6% increase.
Higher prices for gasoline boosted sales at service stations by 2.6% (13.8% y/y). Nevertheless, less gasoline & autos, retail sales still surged 1.0% (3.7% y/y) and the April increase was about doubled to 1.1% (3.7% y/y). On a three-month basis these sales jumped at a 10.7% annual rate.
May sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) surged 1.6% (10.0% y/y) after very much upwardly revised gains during the prior two months of 3.2% and 1.7%.
Sales of discretionary items improved. Sales at general merchandise stores surged 1.2% (5.1% y/y) following gains between 0.4% and 1.0% during the prior three months.Furniture, home furnishings & appliance store sales rose 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) for the second month. The gain, however, followed four months when sales were unchanged or down. The rise reflected higher sales of electronics & appliances which rose 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after a 1.1% April jump. Sales of furniture & home furnishings increased just 0.4% (-4.9% y/y) after a year of monthly declines. Apparel store sales rose 0.5% (-0.1% y/y) but the April increase was lessened to 0.1%.
Building materials & garden equipment sales surged again by 2.4% (-3.2% y/y) following a like increase during April.
Restaurant and drinking places sales also jumped, by 0.8% (5.1% y/y) last month after an upwardly revised 1.2% increase.
The latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| May | April | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.0% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% |
| Excluding Autos | 1.2% | 1.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| Less Gasoline | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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