Global| Jul 16 2019U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Unexpected Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Improvement in consumer spending continues to underscore the economic expansion. Total retail sales increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) during June following a 0.4% May gain, revised from a 0.5%. April's increase was revised also to 0.4% from [...]
Improvement in consumer spending continues to underscore the economic expansion. Total retail sales increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) during June following a 0.4% May gain, revised from a 0.5%. April's increase was revised also to 0.4% from 0.3%. A 0.2% June gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts also rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y) for the second straight month. May's increase was revised from 0.5%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected.
During June, sales of motor vehicle & parts increased 0.7% (4.1% y/y) for a second straight month. This compared to a 0.7% m/m easing in unit sales of motor vehicles.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rose 0.7% (3.2% y/y) and built upon a 0.6% gain in May and a 0.5% April increase.
Growth in sales was broad-based last month. Purchases via the internet strengthened 1.7% (13.4% y/y) for a second straight month. Furniture & home furnishing store sales improved 0.5% (0.2% y/y) following a 0.1% easing. Purchases at building materials & garden equipment stores also rose 0.5% (-2.5% y/y) following two months of decline. Apparel & accessory store buying rose a similar 0.5% (-0.9% y/y) on the heels of a 0.2% dip. General merchandise stores gained 0.2% (2.5% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Showing weakness were purchases at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores which held steady (-3.3% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Also weakening were sales at electronics & appliance stores which fell 0.3% (-5.0% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.
Also moving lower by 2.8% (-1.7% y/y) were gasoline service station sales, as prices fell.
Sales of nondiscretionary items improved last month. Food & beverage store sales increased 0.5% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Health & personal care product store sales also rose 0.5% (5.5% y/y) after moving 0.9% higher in May.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.9% last month (4.0% y/y) after four months of strong gains.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | -2.8 | -0.8 | 1.6 | -1.7 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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