Global| Jan 15 2016U.S. Retail Sales Ease; Weakness Is Broad-Based
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers reined in their spending for the holiday season. Purchases at retail stores and restaurants eased 0.1% during December (+2.8% y/y) following a 0.4% November rise, revised from 0.2%. For all of last year, sales advanced 2.1%, [...]
Consumers reined in their spending for the holiday season. Purchases at retail stores and restaurants eased 0.1% during December (+2.8% y/y) following a 0.4% November rise, revised from 0.2%. For all of last year, sales advanced 2.1%, the weakest increase since a decline in 2009. The latest rise disappointed expectations for a 0.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
An unchanged dollar value of motor vehicle sales compared to a 4.6% decline in unit vehicle sales. Retail sales elsewhere, however, were weak as they also posted a 0.1% dip. Lower gasoline prices also restrained the dollar value of spending with a 1.1% drop (-14.4% y/y), the sixth consecutive monthly fall. Overall retail sales excluding autos and gasoline as well as building materials and restaurants declined 0.3% (+2.8% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
Sales in most discretionary spending categories weakened, led by a 1.0% decline in general merchandise store sales which also were unchanged y/y. It was the third monthly decline in a row. Clothing & accessory store sales fell 0.9% (+1.4% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Electronics & accessory store sales eased 0.3% (-3.5% y/y), down for the third straight month.
Bucking the downward trend was a 0.4% gain in home furnishings sales (0.9% y/y) after falling for two months. Also moving higher by 0.9% (7.8% y/y) were sales of sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, the fourth straight month of gain. Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 0.7% (4.8% y/y) while sales over the internet improved 0.3% (8.0% y/y). Eating out also compensated a bit for restraint elsewhere as restaurant sales gained 0.8% (7.5% y/y).
In the nondiscretionary spending categories, food & beverage store sales dipped 0.3% (+2.1% y/y), the third decline in four months. Health & personal care store sales gained 0.2% (3.5% y/y) for the second straight month.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy is the title of New York Fed Chairman William C. Dudley's speech and it can be found here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Retail Sales | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Gasoline Stations | -1.1 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -14.4 | -19.4 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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