Global| May 15 2019U.S. Retail Sales Ease Due to Broad-Based Weakness
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales slipped 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) during April following a 1.7% March increase, revised from 1.6%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales [...]
Total retail sales slipped 0.2% (+3.1% y/y) during April following a 1.7% March increase, revised from 1.6%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales improved 0.1% (3.3% y/y) after rising 1.3%. A 0.7% gain had been expected.
Last month, a 1.1% decline (+2.2% y/y) in sales of motor vehicle & parts led the overall sales weakness, after a 3.2% March rise. This compared to a 6.1% decline in unit sales of motor vehicles during April.
A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales were unchanged during April (3.4% y/y) after a 1.1% increase.
Weakness in retail sales was pervasive. Sales of building materials & garden equipment stores were off 1.9% (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Electronics & appliance store sales declined 1.3% (-4.3% y/y) and reversed the prior month's rise. Clothing & accessory store sales eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) after a 2.1% jump. Sales via the internet also slipped 0.2% (+9.0% y/y) following three straight months of strong increase. Offsetting these declines was a 0.2% gain (2.7% y/y) in general merchandise store sales which added to a 0.7% rise. Sales by sporting goods, hobby, book & music retailers also improved 0.2% (-8.5% y/y) after a 0.3% decline.
Gasoline service station sales rose 1.8% (4.9% y/y) with higher prices, strong for the third straight month.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% strengthening. Health & personal care product store sales eased 0.2% (+3.6% y/y) following a 0.6% increase.
Restaurant & drinking establishment sales increased 0.2% (5.7% y/y) after a 1.0% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| Retail Sales | -0.2 | 1.8 | -0.4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.1 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.0 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 9.4 | -5.8 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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