Global| Feb 14 2018U.S. Retail Sales Decline; Nonauto Sales Hold Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Many consumers stayed home last month. Total retail sales declined 0.3% during January following no change in December, revised from 0.4% reported initially. November's 0.8% gain was revised from 0.9%. A 0.2% increase had been [...]
Many consumers stayed home last month. Total retail sales declined 0.3% during January following no change in December, revised from 0.4% reported initially. November's 0.8% gain was revised from 0.9%. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales were flat (+4.2% y/y) following a 0.1% rise, revised from 0.4%. It was the weakest monthly change since June. A 0.5% increase had been expected.
Sales of most discretionary items moderated last month. A 1.3% decline (+1.5% y/y) in sales of motor vehicles & parts was the third consecutive monthly shortfall. It compared to a 3.9% decline in unit auto sales reported earlier this month. Purchases of building materials fell 2.4% (+3.6% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales weakened 0.8% (-7.1% y/y), off for the third straight month. Sales of nonstore retailers held steady (10.2% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales also were stable (3.3% y/y) after a 1.5% decline. Rising a modest 0.2% (3.0% y/y) were general merchandise store sales following a 0.3% gain. Showing more improvement were sales at electronics & appliance stores with a 0.5% increase (1.6% y/y), the fifth consecutive month of strength. Clothing & accessory store sales rebounded 1.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 1.2% drop. Gasoline station sales rose 1.6% (9.0% y/y) with higher prices, following a 0.3% gain.
Sales of nondiscretionary items softened last month. Health & personal care store sales fell 1.2% (+0.5% y/y), the third straight monthly shortfall. Food & beverage store sales eased slightly (+3.6% y/y) following a 0.4% rise.
Food service & drinking establishment sales held steady (2.1 y/y) after a 0.9% rise. This performance followed three months of firm gains.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Retail Sales | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.3 | -0.1 | -1.0 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 7.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.0 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 9.0 | 8.9 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 8.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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