Global| Jul 14 2017U.S. Retail Sales Decline Broadly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer spending has discernibly weakened during the last two months. Total retail sales and spending at restaurants fell 0.2% during June (+3.2% y/y) following a 0.1% May dip, revised from -0.3%. A 0.1% increase had been expected in [...]
Consumer spending has discernibly weakened during the last two months. Total retail sales and spending at restaurants fell 0.2% during June (+3.2% y/y) following a 0.1% May dip, revised from -0.3%. A 0.1% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales at motor vehicle & parts dealerships edged up 0.1% (4.3% y/y), compared to a 0.9% fall (-1.8% y/y) in unit motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos decreased 0.2% (+3.0%) following an unrevised 0.3% fall during May. A 0.2% rise had been expected.
Spending on nonauto discretionary items again was mixed last month. Building materials store sales improved 0.5% (5.1% y/y) following three straight months of decline. Sales at nonstore retailers increased 0.4% (9.9% y/y) following a 0.8% rise. General merchandise store sales also rose 0.4% (2.3% y/y), reversing a 0.4% drop. Electronics & appliance store sales improved 0.1% (1.6% y/y) after a 1.3% decline. Furniture & appliance store sales also ticked 0.1% higher (2.6% y/y) after a 0.6% easing. To the downside for the month were sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales which posted a 0.6% decline (-7.7% y/y) after a 1.1% drop. Clothing store sales eased 0.1% (+1.0% y/y) and purchases at furniture & appliance stores improved 0.1% (2.6% y/y) as well. Gasoline service station sales fell 1.3% (+0.7% y/y) with lower prices, the fourth consecutive monthly drop.
In the nondiscretionary sector, health & personal care store sales increased 0.3% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Food & beverage store sales declined 0.4% (+2.0% y/y) following a 0.1% gain.
Restaurant sales fell 0.6% (+3.0% y/y), the fourth decline in five months.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast expectations are included in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Retail Sales | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -1.3 | -3.0 | -0.5 | 0.7 | -5.7 | -17.6 | -2.0 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.6 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 6.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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