Global| Jan 15 2021U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Consumer spending weakens for third straight month. • Spending declines are widespread across categories. Total retail sales including food service & drinking establishments declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December following a 1.4% [...]
• Consumer spending weakens for third straight month.
• Spending declines are widespread across categories.
Total retail sales including food service & drinking establishments declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December following a 1.4% November shortfall, revised from -1.1%. October's 0.1% slip was unrevised. A 0.2% sales increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts fell 1.4% (+1.1% y/y) in December after November's 1.3% drop, revised from -0.9%. October's 0.1% easing was unrevised. A 0.1% slip had been anticipated. In the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, retail sales fell 1.9% (+6.4% y/y) following a 1.1% decline slip and a 0.2% October dip. These declines followed three consecutive months of roughly 1.0% improvement. Retail sales excluding restaurants declined 0.3% last month (+6.3% y/y) after November's 1.1% fall.
Sales of motor vehicle & parts dealerships rose 1.9% last month (10.1% y/y) and reversed November's 1.5% drop. This compares to a 3.1% rise in unit light vehicle sales reported for December which made up November's 3.0% decline. Gasoline & service station sales improved 6.6% (-12.1% y/y) as seasonally adjusted gasoline prices (constructed by Haver Analytics) rose 8.3% m/m. As individuals stayed home due to the coronavirus outbreak, building materials & garden store sales improved 0.9% (17.0% y/y), about the same as in November.
Sales of nonstore retailers declined 5.8% (+19.2% y/y) following a 1.6% November fall. Electronics & appliance store sales weakened 4.9% (-16.6% y/y) after falling 8.3%. General merchandise store sales declined 1.2% in December (+1.1% y/y), about as they did in the prior two months. Shopping in department stores continued to weaken as sales were off 3.8% (-21.4% y/y), the fourth sharp decline in five months. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales weakened 0.8% (+15.2% y/y) after two months of decline. Purchases at furniture & home furnishings stores weakened 0.6% (+3.1% y/y), off for the third straight month. Working the other way last month were apparel & accessory store sales which rebounded 2.4% (-16.0% y/y) after falling 6.1% in November.
Despite the inclination to stay home, food and beverage store sales fell 1.4% last month (+8.9% y/y) which reversed November's 1.5% increase. In another nondiscretionary category, health & personal care products sales rose 1.1% (5.8% y/y) following two months of 0.4% decline.
Shutdowns and restrictions on dining out continued to reduce restaurant and drinking establishment sales, which weakened 4.5% last month (-21.2% y/y) off for the third straight month.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.7 | -1.4 | -0.1 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Excluding Autos | -1.4 | -1.3 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 5.2 |
| Retail Sales | -0.3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.9 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 5.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.9 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| Food & Beverage Stores | -1.4 | 1.5 | -0.7 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Gasoline Service Stations | 6.6 | -1.6 | 0.0 | -12.1 | -15.6 | -0.5 | 9.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places | -4.5 | -3.6 | -0.3 | -21.2 | -19.2 | 4.6 | 5.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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