Global| Oct 14 2016U.S. Retail Sales Bounce Back M/M, but Forward Momentum Fades
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% during September (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the [...]
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% during September (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the bounce-back, the three-month change in sales fell to 2.1% (AR), its weakest since March.
Sales of motor vehicle & parts increased 1.1% (2.5% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. This compared to a 4.5% rise in unit vehicle purchases. Excluding autos, retail sales gained 0.5% (2.7% y/y) following two months of decline. In the retail control group, which comprises nonauto sales less gasoline, building materials & restaurants, sales nudged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y) following two months of decline.
Gasoline service station sales rose 2.4% (-3.4% y/y) after a 1.4% drop. Building materials & garden equipment buying gained 1.4% (5.6% y/y) following a 0.8% fall.
Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales improved 1.4% (0.0% y/y) after two months of roughly 2.5% decline. Furniture & home furnishings store sales jumped 1.0% (2.7% y/y), though that followed two months of decline as well. Nonstore retailer sales improved 0.3% (10.6% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Clothing store sales remained steady (0.7% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. To the downside, electronics & appliance outlet sales were off 0.9% (-3.8% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. General merchandisers posted a 0.4% drop (-2.5% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, food & beverage store sales improved 0.1% ( 1.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Health & personal care store sales declined 0.5% (+5.4% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
Eating out was in vogue as food service & drinking establishment sales increased 0.8% (6.1% y/y) following a 0.7% gain.
U.S. Real Wage Growth: Fast Out of the Starting Blocks from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services (Control Group) | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| Retail Sales | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.1 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 8.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.4 | -1.4 | -2.2 | -3.4 | -19.4 | -2.4 | -1.2 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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