Global| Oct 12 2007U.S. Retail Sales Beat Forecasts, But Nonauto Sales Weak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. September retail sales rise of 0.6% beat forecasts for a 0.2% uptick. The prior month's 0.3% gain was unrevised. A 1.2% advance in motor vehicle purchases added to a 3.3% August rise. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4% and offset a [...]
U.S. September retail sales rise of 0.6% beat forecasts for a 0.2% uptick. The prior month's 0.3% gain was unrevised.
A 1.2% advance in motor vehicle purchases added to a 3.3% August rise.
Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4% and offset a 0.4% decline in August. A 0.3% gain had been expected.Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose just 0.2% (4.5% y/y) after an unrevised 0.1% decline during August. The movement followed a 0.8% July rise but no change in June.
Gasoline service station sales surged 2.0% but gas prices at the pump rose just 0.6% to an average $2.80 per gallon (9.7% y/y).
Sales of discretionary items were generally weak last month. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores rose just 0.1% (1.7% y/y) after a 0.4% August rise. Sales at general merchandise stores fell 0.1% (+3.7 y/y) and that gain is down from 5%+ increases this Summer. Apparel store sales fell 0.4% (+2.4% y/y), the third monthly decline in the last four
Building material sales recovered 0.8% (-0.6% y/y), perhaps reflecting the warm September weather.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) surged 1.1%% (8.7% y/y) and recovered from a 0.9% drop the prior month.
A Taylor Rule and the Greenspan Era from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.
| September | August | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4% | -0.4% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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