Global| Sep 15 2017U.S. Retail Sales Backpedal
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales and spending at restaurants declined 0.2% (+3.5% y/y) during August. The July estimate was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.6% and June's figure was reduced to -0.1% from 0.3%. A 0.1% increase had been expected in the [...]
Total retail sales and spending at restaurants declined 0.2% (+3.5% y/y) during August. The July estimate was revised lower to 0.3% from 0.6% and June's figure was reduced to -0.1% from 0.3%. A 0.1% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Leading last month's decline was a 1.6% fall in motor vehicle & parts sales (+1.9% y/y) compared to a 3.7% fall (-6.3% y/y) in unit motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos improved 0.2% following a 0.4% rise, revised from 0.5%. A 0.3% rise had been expected. June's change was lowered to -0.2% from +0.1%. At this time, the Commerce Department indicated that Hurricane Harvey had an indeterminate effect on overall retail sales last month.
Spending on nonauto discretionary items generally weakened last month. Sales at nonstore retailers declined 1.1% (+8.0% y/y) following a 1.8% rise. Purchases at apparel stores fell 1.0% (+1.5% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Sales at electronics & appliance stores were off 0.7% (-3.3% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of decline. Building materials and garden equipment stores eased 0.5% (+8.2% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. To the upside were gasoline service station sales which increased 2.5% (6.6% y/y) with higher prices. That followed six straight months of sales decline. Sales at furniture & home furnishings stores rose by 0.4% (5.9% y/y) following a 0.5% shortfall. General merchandise store sales gained 0.2% (3.1% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. Sporting goods & hobby shop store sales inched 0.1% higher (-1.7% y/y) following three straight months of decline.
In the nondiscretionary sector, health & personal care store sales ticked 0.1% higher (0.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) following a 0.2% gain.
Restaurant sales improved 0.3% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.1% shortfall.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast expectations are included in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Retail Sales | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.6 | -0.0 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.5 | -0.7 | -1.4 | 6.6 | -5.7 | -17.6 | -2.0 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 6.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
