Global| May 13 2015U.S. Retail Sales Are Sluggish
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during April were little-changed (+0.9% y/y) following a 1.1% March increase, revised from 0.9%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during April were little-changed (+0.9% y/y) following a 1.1% March increase, revised from 0.9%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos gained 0.1% (-0.0% y/y) after a 0.7% advance, revised from 0.4%. A 0.5% increase had been expected. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP. Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services and align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping were unchanged last month (2.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
A 0.4 decline in auto sales (+4.5% y/y) held back the rise in overall retail spending. It followed a 2.9% jump that was making up February's 2.2% shortfall. The latest decline compares to a 4.0% drop (+2.5% y/y) in unit vehicle sales. Sales of building materials improved 0.3% (4.1% y/y) following a 2.3% jump.
Purchases at furniture & home furnishings outlets declined 0.9% (+1.5% y/y) after a 1.8% rise. Sales at electronics & appliance stores fell 0.4% (-3.5% y/y), the seventh consecutive monthly shortfall. General merchandise store sales were off 0.5% (-1.3% y/y), the second decline in the last three months. Gasoline retailers saw sales fall 0.7% (-22.0% y/y) despite higher gas prices. To the upside, nonstore retailers realized a 0.8% sales improvement (6.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales also jumped 0.8% (6.4% y/y) following two months of strong increase. Sales of clothing and accessories improved 0.2% (1.2% y/y), the weakest of three consecutive monthly gains.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.8% (5.3% y/y) following a 0.3% increase. Food & beverage store sales slipped 0.1% (+2.1% y/y), the fourth straight month of slight decline.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Looking Forward, Forward Looking: The Path for Monetary Policy is the title of yesterday's presentation by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. It is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.0 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| Retail Sales | -0.1 | 1.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.4 | 2.9 | -2.2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 8.9 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.0 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.7 | 0.4 | 2.5 | -22.0 | -2.8 | -0.5 | 4.2 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 5.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
