Global| Sep 15 2015U.S. Retail Sales Advance Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during August increased 0.2% (1.6% y/y). A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. July's 0.7% gain and June's slight decline were little [...]
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during August increased 0.2% (1.6% y/y). A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. July's 0.7% gain and June's slight decline were little revised. Sales excluding autos notched 0.1% higher (0.4% y/y) after July's upwardly revised 0.6% rise and an unrevised 0.4% June gain. A 0.2% August increase had been expected. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP.
Sales in the retail control group do not include autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping improved 0.4% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.6% July rise which was double the initial estimate. June's 0.3% rise was little changed.
Building materials & garden equipment sales declined 1.8% (0.8% y/y) and reversed July's upwardly revised increase. Light motor vehicle sales improved 0.7% (5.8% y/y), adding to July's 1.3% jump. The rise compared to a 1.5% increase in unit sales of cars and light trucks.
In other discretionary spending categories, clothing and accessory store sales improved 0.4% (2.2% y/y) after a 1.6% rise. General merchandise store sates also gained 0.4% (0.7% y/y) after improving 0.3%. Sales at electronics & appliance stores rose 0.2% (-2.8% y/y) on the heels of a 0.9% decline. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) and added to a 1.3% jump. Internet sales improved 0.2% (7.5% y/y) following a 1.7% surge. Sales of furniture & home furnishings increased 0.8% (6.6% y/y) after a 1.0% decline. To the downside furniture store sales declined 0.9% (+2.4% y/y) and reversed July's rise. Restaurant sales gained 0.7% (6.1% y/y) following a 0.3% rise.
In the nondiscretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales jumped 0.8% (4.3% y/y) following a 0.6% decrease. Food & beverage store sales increased 0.7% (2.0% y/y) after ticking up 0.1% for two consecutive months.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.0 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.7 | 1.3 | -1.6 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline Stations | -1.8 | -0.6 | 1.2 | -17.1 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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