Global| Aug 11 2015U.S. Productivity Improves Following Two Quarters of Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm productivity increased 1.3% during Q2'15 (SAAR, 0.3% y/y), about as expected, following a 1.1% decline earlier this year, revised from -3.1%. Productivity fell a little-changed 2.2% in Q4'14. Last year's 0.7% rise was [...]
Nonfarm productivity increased 1.3% during Q2'15 (SAAR, 0.3% y/y), about as expected, following a 1.1% decline earlier this year, revised from -3.1%. Productivity fell a little-changed 2.2% in Q4'14. Last year's 0.7% rise was unrevised but no change in 2013 was pulled down from 0.9%. Data were revised back to 2012. Real output improved at a 2.8% rate last quarter (2.8% y/y) following 0.5% rise. Hours worked gained 1.5% (2.6% y/y), about the same as during Q1. Compensation per hour increased at a 1.8% rate (2.4% y/y) after a 1.1% gain. When adjusted for higher prices, compensation declined 1.1% (+2.3% y/y). The increase in productivity caused unit labor costs to notch higher at a 0.5% rate (2.1% y/y), also near expectations. That followed increases of 2.3% and 5.7% during the prior two quarters. The downward revision to productivity in 2013 fostered a 1.1% gain in unit labor costs, revised from 0.2%.
Manufacturing sector worker productivity increased at a 2.5% rate (1.1% y/y) following an unrevised 0.6% dip. The 1.3% increase during all of last year was changed from 2.2% and the 0.7% rise in 2013 compared to 1.9% estimated earlier. Real output increased at a 1.5% rate (2.3% y/y), following a 0.5% dip. Hours worked moved 1.0% lower (+1.2% y/y) following a minimal 0.1% improvement. Worker compensation per hour rose at a 0.2% rate (1.3% y/y) after a 1.7% decline. Adjusted for prices, compensation declined at a 2.7% rate (1.3% y/y), after a 1.3% increase. Unit labor costs declined at a 2.3% annual rate (+0.2% y/y), down for the fourth quarter in the last five.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and are found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Productivity & Costs (SAAR,%) | Q2'15 | Q1'15 | Q4'14 | Q2 Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 1.3 | -1.1 | -2.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Compensation per Hour | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 0.5 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 2.5 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Compensation per Hour | 0.2 | -1.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -2.3 | -1.1 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 1.4 | -0.5 | 1.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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