Global| Jul 13 2017U.S. Producer Prices Rise Minimally
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index improved 0.1% during June (2.0% y/y) after May's stability. No change in the index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first six months of 2016, the [...]
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index improved 0.1% during June (2.0% y/y) after May's stability. No change in the index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first six months of 2016, the index rose at a 2.7% annual rate. The PPI excluding food & energy rose 0.1% last month (1.9% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected. During the last six months, core prices rose at a 2.5% rate.
An updated measure of core producer price inflation is the overall index excluding food, energy and trade services. It rose 0.2% last month (2.0% y/y) following a 0.1% dip. During the last six months, the index rose at a 2.3% annual rate.
Final demand goods prices improved 0.1% (2.2% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. The price index excluding food & energy increased a steady 0.1% (2.1% y/y).
A 0.5% decline in energy prices (+4.1% y/y) followed a 3.0% May drop. Gasoline prices fell 1.1% (-0.5% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five months. Home heating oil prices were off 1.3% (+2.7% y/y), down for the fifth straight month. Natural gas prices eased 0.2% (+13.7% y/y), the first decline since December. Electric power costs held steady (+3.7% y/y). Food prices increased 0.6% (1.1% y/y) after a 0.2% drop. Beef & veal prices gained 7.0% (6.6% y/y) as egg prices improved 0.7% (24.5% y/y). Dairy product prices increased 1.8% (5.7% y/y) while fresh fruit & vegetable costs declined 3.8% (+4.3% y/y).
Nondurable consumer goods prices less food & energy rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y) after two months of 0.4% gain. Durable consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (1.0% y/y) following a 0.1% decline. Capital equipment gained 0.2% (0.8% y/y) after falling 0.1%.
Final demand for services prices increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y), the weakest increase in four months. Trade services prices fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) following a 1.1% strengthening. Private passenger transportation prices fell 0.7% (+2.0% y/y), the fourth decline this year.
Final demand construction prices rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y) as prices for private capital investment improved 0.1% (1.3% y/y). Prices for public investment gained 0.3% (1.1% y/y).
Prices for intermediate demand for goods declined 0.2% (+3.8 y/y) following a 0.1% increase.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (SA, %) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Demand | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 1.8 |
| Excluding Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goods | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 2.2 | -1.5 | -4.9 | 1.4 |
| Foods | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | -3.2 | -3.1 | 3.7 |
| Energy | -0.5 | -3.0 | 0.8 | 4.1 | -8.2 | -25.6 | -3.2 |
| Goods Excluding Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Services | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Trade Services | -0.2 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Construction | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.8 | -5.7 | -14.0 | 1.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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