Global| Dec 15 2011U.S. Producer Prices Rebound With Food Costs
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The November producer price index for finished goods rebounded 0.3% following an unrevised 0.3% October decline. The figure compared to Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase, according to the Action Economics survey. The increase [...]
The November producer price index for finished goods
rebounded 0.3% following an unrevised 0.3% October decline. The
figure compared to Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase,
according to the Action Economics survey. The increase left the y/y
change at an elevated 5.9%. Core pricing power was moderate as
indicated by a 0.1% uptick in the November PPI less food &
energy. A 0.2% increase had been expected. Nevertheless, the latest
rise left the twelve-month increase at 2.9%, more-than double last
year's rise.
Higher food prices accounted for most of the rise in last month's PPI as they jumped 1.0% (7.7% y/y). Prices for fresh & dried vegetables rose by more than one-third y/y while beef & veal prices rose 16.7% y/y. Pasta product prices rose 18.6% y/y and dairy prices also posted a firm 8.7% y/y gain. Energy prices ticked up just 0.1% as gasoline prices slipped 0.1% (+21.5% y/y), electric power costs slipped 0.5% (2.7% y/y) and natural gas prices fell 2.0% (-0.5% y/y). These declines offset a 9.4% (31.0% y/y) rise in home heating oil costs.
Finished consumer goods prices rose 0.3% (7.1% y/y) with higher food costs. Less food & energy, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (3.5% y/y). Within the components, men's apparel prices were strong posting a 7.7% y/y increase after being little-changed last year. Household furniture prices rose 2.8% y/y, up from 0.3% last year. Appliance prices rose 2.9% y/y after a 0.6% fall in 2010 and women's apparel prices rose 1.8% y/y after last year's 0.5% dip. Passenger car prices rose 1.8% y/y after last year's 1.4% y/y decline and tobacco prices rose a stable and strong 6.6% y/y. Capital equipment prices rose 0.1% last month and the 2.2% y/y increase built on last year's 0.4% rise.
Intermediate goods prices rose 0.2% (7.8% y/y) as energy prices rose 1.9% (15.4% y/y) and food prices rose 0.6% (8.3% y/y). Core-intermediate prices fell 0.4% (+5.2% y/y). Crude materials prices rose 3.8% (15.3% y/y) as energy prices jumped 10.5% (19.3% y/y) and food prices nudged up 0.5% (16.0% y/y). Continuing lower were prices less food & energy, off 2.5% m/m and up a lessened 6.5% y/y.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectation figure is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 4.2 | -2.5 | 6.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| Food | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | -1.4 | 6.8 |
| Energy | 0.1 | -1.4 | 2.3 | 12.2 | 13.7 | -17.7 | 14.1 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.2 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 6.4 | -8.4 | 10.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | -0.4 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | -4.2 | 7.4 |
| Crude Materials | 3.8 | -2.5 | 2.8 | 15.3 | 21.4 | -30.3 | 21.5 |
| Less Food & Energy | -2.5 | -4.3 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 32.6 | -23.4 | 14.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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