Global| Dec 13 2007U.S. PPI Total Surged, Core Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Finished producer prices surged 3.2% last month after little change during October. A 1.5% rise had been expected. Core finished goods producer prices rose a firm 0.4%, the strongest gain since this past February. Energy prices [...]
Finished producer prices surged 3.2% last month after little change during October. A 1.5% rise had been expected. Core finished goods producer prices rose a firm 0.4%, the strongest gain since this past February.
Energy prices increased 14.1% (25.7% y/y) led by a 34.8% (50.9% y/y) pop in the price of gasoline. Home heating oil prices also surged by 31.5% (36.0% y/y) but natural gas prices fell 5.2% (+1.0% y/y).
The firm gain in the core PPI almost wholly reflected a 0.6% rise in passenger car prices and a 2.3% surge in light truck prices.
Capital equipment prices rose 0.3% (1.3% y/y on the strength of light truck prices.
Food prices were unchanged (7.2% y/y) after 1.0%+ gains during the prior two months.
Intermediate goods prices surged 3.7% on the strength of higher energy prices and a 1.2% (16.3% y/y) surge in food prices. Excluding food & energy prices were also firm and rose 1.0% (3.3% y/y).
The crude materials PPI surged 8.7% led higher by a 17.0% (23.5% y/y) jump in energy prices. The core crude materials PPI fell 0.5%.
A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Producer Price Index | November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 3.2% | 0.1% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% |
| Core | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Intermediate Goods | 3.7% | 0.1% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% |
| Core | 1.0% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Crude Goods | 8.7% | 2.4% | 22.2% | 1.4% | 14.6% | 17.5% |
| Core | -0.5% | 1.4% | 18.9% | 20.9% | 4.9% | 26.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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