Global| Feb 16 2012U.S. PPI Posts Minimal Increase; Core Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods ticked up 0.1% last month following an unrevised 0.1% December slip. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% rise, according to the Action Economics survey. Core pricing power again was [...]
The producer price index for finished goods ticked up 0.1%
last month following an unrevised 0.1% December slip. Consensus
expectations had been for a 0.4% rise, according to the Action
Economics survey. Core pricing power again was firm. The PPI less
food & energy rose 0.4%, its strongest gain since July. A 0.1%
rise had been expected.
Lower food prices again restrained the PPI increase with a 0.3% drop (+5.3% y/y). Energy prices also fell 0.5% last month (+6.2% y/y). Gasoline prices rose 2.0% m/m and were up 11.2% y/y. However, that increase was offset by a 2.9% decline (+13.6% y/y) in home heating oil costs as well as a 3.4% drop (-6.0% y/y) in residential gas prices.
Finished consumer goods prices were unchanged (4.8% y/y) versus December. Less food & energy, consumer goods prices rose 0.5% (3.5% y/y). Within the components, men's apparel prices rose 7.5% y/y while women's clothing costs increased 1.7% y/y. Household furniture prices gained 3.0% y/y while appliance prices rose 4.4% during the last twelve months. Passenger car prices rose a moderate 1.6% y/y but tobacco prices rose 5.4% y/y. Capital equipment prices rose 0.4% last month and by 2.3% since last January.
Intermediate goods prices fell 0.4% m/m but were up a firm 4.4% y/y. Energy prices fell 1.4% last month (+8.4% y/y) and food prices slipped 0.4% (+7.2% y/y). Core-intermediate prices ticked 0.1% lower (+2.7% y/y). Crude materials prices rose 1.5% last month and increased 4.8% during the last twelve. Energy prices gained 1.6% (2.1% y/y) while food prices rose the same 1.6% (9.9% y/y). Prices less food & energy increased 0.6% m/m but were unchanged for the year.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectation figure is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.2 | -2.5 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Food | -0.3 | -0.9 | 1.2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.9 | -1.4 |
| Energy | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 6.2 | 15.7 | 13.6 | -17.6 |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | -8.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 4.3 | -4.2 |
| Crude Materials | 1.5 | -1.5 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 17.4 | 21.4 | -30.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.6 | -0.1 | -2.2 | 0.0 | 18.8 | 32.5 | -23.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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