Global| Oct 12 2012U.S. PPI Gain Reflects Energy Price Strength
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods jumped again last month. The 1.1% increase (2.2% y/y) followed a 1.7% August rise and beat expectations for a 0.7% gain. Conversely, the unchanged level (2.3% y/y) of prices excluding food & [...]
The producer price index for finished goods jumped again last
month. The 1.1% increase (2.2% y/y) followed a 1.7% August rise and beat
expectations for a 0.7% gain. Conversely, the unchanged level (2.3% y/y)
of prices excluding food & energy surprised expectations for a 0.2%
increase. Higher energy prices provided the lift to September's overall
index with a 4.7% gain (-7.9% y/y). Gasoline prices jumped 9.8% (8.5% y/y)
and home heating oil prices gained 3.1% (6.8% y/y). Food prices were
relatively tame and rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y). That increase was led by a 5.4%
y/y rise in prices for fresh fruits and a 9.4% y/y gain in meat prices.
These strengths were offset by a 15.9% decline in vegetable prices.
Finished consumer goods prices jumped 1.6% (2.4% y/y). Excluding food & energy, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y). Within the components, men's apparel prices rose 3.2% y/y while women's clothing costs increased 0.2% y/y. Household appliance prices gained 5.1% since September of 2011, furniture prices rose 1.7% y/y and passenger car prices increased 1.6% y/y. Capital equipment prices slipped 0.1% last month (+1.7% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices jumped 1.5% (-0.1% y/y) as energy costs spiked 4.3% (0.7% y/y), about as they did in August. Also strong were food prices with a 2.0% rise (5.6% y/y). Core-intermediate prices rose 0.6% but still were off 1.2% y/y. Crude goods prices gained 2.8% (-2.6% y/y) last month bolstered by a 1.6% gain (-8.8% y/y) in prices less food & energy. Energy prices jumped 4.4% (-6.1% y/y) while food prices increased another 1.6% (5.2% y/y) due to drought conditions in the Midwest. Prices less food & energy gained 1.6% and were down 8.8% over the prior twelve months.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index(%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 4.2 | -2.5 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Foods | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 | -1.4 |
| Energy | 4.7 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 15.7 | 13.6 | -17.6 |
| Intermediate Goods | 1.5 | 1.1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 9.1 | 6.4 | -8.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | -4.2 |
| Crude Goods | 2.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | -2.6 | 17.4 | 21.4 | -30.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | 1.6 | 2.2 | -1.1 | -8.8 | 18.5 | 32.5 | -23.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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