Global| Nov 21 2013U.S. PPI Falls Again but Core Price Increase Firms
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Producer Price Index for finished goods matched expectations and declined 0.2% last month (+0.3% y/y) following a 0.1% September slip. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.2% in October (1.4% y/y), the quickest rise since June. [...]
The Producer Price Index for finished
goods matched expectations and declined 0.2% last month (+0.3% y/y)
following a 0.1% September slip. Prices excluding food & energy
rose 0.2% in October (1.4% y/y), the quickest rise since June.
Expectations had been for a 0.1% uptick.
Food prices firmed by 0.8% (1.7% y/y), the largest gain since March. Fresh and dry vegetables prices surged by one-half y/y while bakery product prices rose 3.3% y/y. Beef & veal prices rose 0.9% y/y but dairy product costs fell 0.9% y/y). Energy prices fell 1.5% (-3.4% y/y). The decline was led by a 3.8% fall (-11.3% y/y) in gasoline prices and a 1.0% decline (-2.1% y/y) in home heating oil costs. Natural gas prices slipped 0.6% (+6.7% y/y).
Finished consumer goods prices excluding food & energy edged up 0.1% (1.7% y/y). Consumer durable goods prices gained 0.1% (0.8% y/y) but passenger car prices jumped 1.7% (1.0% y/y). Core consumer nondurable goods prices rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Capital equipment prices increased 0.1% (1.0% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices fell 0.4% (-0.8% y/y) led by a 1.2% decline (-5.0% y/y) in energy costs. Intermediate food prices were off 1.5% (-3.4% y/y). Prices excluding food & energy slipped 0.1% (+0.8% y/y). Crude goods prices declined 0.9% (-0.4% y/y) led by a 2.9% shortfall (+2.2% y/y) in energy prices. Working the other way, crude food prices rose 1.2% (-5.1% y/y). Crude goods prices excluding food & energy fell 0.5% (-5.1% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Foods | 0.8 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Energy | -1.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -3.4 | -0.2 | 15.5 | 13.5 |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Crude Goods | -0.9 | 0.5 | -2.7 | -0.4 | -3.3 | 17.4 | 21.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | -0.5 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -5.1 | -5.2 | 18.5 | 32.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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