Global| Jan 15 2008U.S. PPI Eased
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Finished producer prices retreated 0.1% last month after the 3.2% surge during November. The decline compared with an expectation for a 0.2% gain. A 0.2% gain in core producer prices matched expectations. Energy prices fell 1.9% [...]
Finished producer prices retreated 0.1% last month after the 3.2% surge during November. The decline compared with an expectation for a 0.2% gain. A 0.2% gain in core producer prices matched expectations.
Energy prices fell 1.9% (+20.4% y/y) after the 14.1% surge in November. Gasoline prices fell 4.8% (+36.8% y/y) following the one-third rise in prices during November. Home heating oil prices were essentially unchanged (30.9% y/y) but that also followed a near one-third November surge. Natural gas prices fell for the third straight month and ticked down 0.1% (-1.3% y/y).
Finished consumer food prices were strong again and rose 1.1% (7.4% y/y) for the third 1.0%+ gain in the last four months.
Prices of finished consumer goods (incl. energy) fell 0.1% (+8.4% y/y) after a 4.0% November increase. Capital equipment prices rose 0.1% (1.3% y/y) after the 0.3% November increase. Prices for light trucks fell 0.3% (-0.9% y/y) following the 2.3% November jump.
Intermediate goods prices ticked down 0.2% after the 3.7% November surge as some of the earlier strength in energy prices backpedaled. Excluding food & energy prices were unchanged after the 1.0% November pop.
The gain in the crude materials PPI eased to 1.0% following the 8.7% November surge. Crude energy materials prices fell 0.7% (+17.1% y/y). The core crude materials PPI fell slightly as prices for copper (+1.2% y/y) and aluminum (-5.8% y/y) base scrap fell.
Why Do Gasoline Prices React to Things That Have Not Happened? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Producer Price Index | December | November | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.1% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% |
| Core | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.2% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% |
| Core | 0.0% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Crude Goods | 1.0% | 8.7% | 20.3% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 14.6% |
| Core | -0.0% | -0.5% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 20.9% | 4.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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