Global| May 15 2013U.S. PPI Continues Downward With Energy Prices; Core Weakens Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.7% last month (+0.7% y/y) and added to an unrevised 0.6% March shortfall. The decline roughly matched expectations for a 0.6% drop. Prices excluding food & energy ticked up an [...]
The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.7% last month (+0.7% y/y) and added to an unrevised 0.6% March shortfall. The decline roughly matched expectations for a 0.6% drop. Prices excluding food & energy ticked up an expected 0.1% (1.7% y/y). Energy prices led the decline in overall prices with a 2.5% drop (-3.3% y/y), adding to the 3.4% March decline. Gasoline prices fell 6.0% (-8.9% y/y) while home heating oil prices were off 8.8% (-11.7% y/y). Residential gas prices surged another 4.5% (10.4% y/y). Adding to the energy price declines was a 0.8% drop (+2.3% y/y) in food prices, reversing a 0.8% March increase. Beef costs dropped 3.8% (+0.9% y/y) but bakery product prices rose 0.3% (2.3% y/y).
Finished consumer goods prices dropped 1.0% (+0.6% y/y) but excluding food & energy, prices ticked up 0.1% (2.3% y/y). Within the components, women's clothing costs increased a substantial 2.3% y/y while men's apparel prices rose 1.8% y/y. Household appliance prices edged up just 0.1% y/y, furniture prices rose a steady 1.8% y/y but passenger car prices slipped 0.2% y/y. Capital equipment prices edged up a steady 0.1% (0.9% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices fell 0.6% (-0.9% y/y) as energy costs declined 2.1% (-4.7% y/y). Food prices were off 0.9% (+3.5% y/y) while core intermediate prices fell 0.2% (-0.2% y/y. Crude goods prices edged 0.4% lower (+3.4% y/y) last month led by a 2.6% decline (+5.8% y/y) in food prices. That was offset by a 3.7% rise (8.4% y/y) in energy prices. Prices excluding food & energy fell 2.8% (-5.9% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.7 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Foods | -0.8 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Energy | -2.5 | -3.4 | 3.0 | -3.3 | -0.2 | 15.5 | 13.5 |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.6 | -0.9 | 1.3 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Crude Goods | -0.4 | -2.5 | -0.3 | 3.4 | -3.2 | 17.4 | 21.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | -2.8 | 0.9 | -1.7 | -5.9 | -5.2 | 18.5 | 32.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
