Global| Nov 14 2012U.S. PPI Backpedals With Lower Energy Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.2% last month. The decline followed four months of increase and contrasted with expectations for a 0.2% rise. Excluding food & energy prices also fell 0.2% versus expectations for a [...]
The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.2% last
month. The decline followed four months of increase and contrasted with
expectations for a 0.2% rise. Excluding food & energy prices also fell
0.2% versus expectations for a 0.2% increase. Lower energy prices paced
last month's decline with a 0.5% (+3.1% y/y) drop. That reflected a 3.3%
(+2.7% y/y) decline in home heating oil costs and a 2.2% (+9.5% y/y)
easing in gasoline prices. Higher food prices offset these declines with a
0.4% (2.2% y/y) increase, the fifth consecutive month of gain.
Finished consumer goods prices slipped 0.1% (+2.7% y/y). Excluding food & energy, consumer goods prices fell 0.3% (+2.6% y/y). Within the components, men's apparel prices rose 3.5% y/y while women's clothing costs increased 0.5% y/y. Household appliance prices gained 5.1% since October of 2011, furniture prices rose 2.2% y/y and passenger car prices increased 0.2% y/y. Capital equipment prices fell 0.3% last month (+1.4% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices slipped 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) as energy costs fell 0.6% (+2.3% y/y) following two months of strong increase. Food prices gained 0.7% (7.5% y/y) following three months of notable gain but energy prices slipped 0.6% (+2.3% y/y). Core-intermediate prices were unchanged (-0.5% y/y. Crude goods prices gained 0.9% (-0.0% y/y) last month bolstered by a 1.9% (9.2% y/y) jump in food prices and a 1.3% (-4.8% y/y) rise in energy prices. Prices excluding food & energy fell 1.4% (-5.9% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | -2.5 |
| Less Food & Energy | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.6 |
| Foods | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 | -1.4 |
| Energy | -0.5 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 15.7 | 13.6 | -17.6 |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 9.1 | 6.4 | -8.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | -4.2 |
| Crude Goods | 0.9 | 2.8 | 5.8 | -0.0 | 17.4 | 21.4 | -30.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | -1.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | -5.9 | 18.5 | 32.5 | -23.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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