Global| Apr 05 2011U.S. Petroleum Prices Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The firming U.S. economy and political unrest in Libya gave further strength last week to petroleum prices.The pump price for regular gasoline jumped eight cents to $3.68 per gallon, the highest level since September, 2008 and more- [...]
The firming U.S. economy and political unrest in Libya gave further strength last week to petroleum prices.The pump price for regular gasoline jumped eight cents to $3.68 per gallon, the highest level since September, 2008 and more-than-double the December, 2008 low of $1.61. Typically, pump prices decline this time of year due to lessened seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. The adjusted gasoline price rose further last week to $3.67 per gallon. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline increased to $3.09 from an average $2.97 last week.
Crude oil prices remained strong last week and increased to $105.54 for a barrel of WTI, also the highest since September, 2008. The price compares to the 2008 low of $32.37. Yesterday prices rose further to $108.47 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices also increased, last week to $115.29 and yesterday to 119.64.
Higher prices certainly can affect demand. Gasoline demand slipped 0.1% in the latest week versus last year. The demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, fell 4.6% but distillate demand rose 4.4% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products remained little-changed year-to-year, though that compares to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
Finally, natural gas prices rose w/w to $4.29 per mmbtu, the highest level since early-last month. Yesterday, prices slipped to $4.23 and remained down from last year's early-January high of $6.50.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
| Weekly Price | 4/4/11 | 3/28/11 | 3/21/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.68 | 3.60 | 3.56 | 30.4 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 105.54 | 104.52 | 99.77 | 26.7 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 4.29 | 4.14 | 3.87 | 13.0 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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