Global| May 05 2020U.S. Petroleum Prices Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Crude oil prices rose last week following the prior week's collapse. • Gasoline prices increased two cents. • Natural gas prices weakened further. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rebounded to $15.65 per barrel [...]
• Crude oil prices rose last week following the prior week's collapse.
• Gasoline prices increased two cents.
• Natural gas prices weakened further.
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rebounded to $15.65 per barrel (-75.1% y/y) in the week ended May 1. The record low average of $3.64 set in the previous week was distorted by daily prices falling into negative territory (-$36.98 per barrel on April 20). Yesterday, the price was $20.39 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil also recovered to $23.45 after falling sharply to $21.75 per barrel which was the lowest since March 2002. These prices were down from the weekly high of $84.96 early in October 2018.
Retail gasoline prices improved to $1.79 per gallon (-38.2% y/y) in the week ended May 4 from $1.77 per gallon in the previous week. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for regular seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted price held steady at $1.67 per gallon and remained at the lowest since January 2004.
The average price of natural gas slumped to $1.71/mmbtu (-34.3% y/y) in the week ended May 1 from $1.85/mmbtu the previous week. This was the lowest price since early last month. The price of natural gas is down from $4.67/mmbtu late in November 2018. Yesterday, the price rose to $1.78/mmbtu.
Reduced demand for oil and products is behind the collapse in prices. In the four weeks ending April 24, gasoline demand plummeted 43.7% y/y, while total petroleum product demand fell 28.0% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries declined 21.0% y/y in the past four weeks. At the same time, gasoline inventories rose 14.5% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products increased 6.0% y/y.
These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 05/04/20 | 04/27/20 | 04/20/20 | Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular, Monday Price, End of Period) | 1.79 | 1.77 | 1.81 | -38.2 | 2.57 | 2.27 | 2.47 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl, Previous Week's Average) | 15.65 | 3.64 | 20.11 | -75.1 | 56.91 | 64.95 | 50.87 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous Week's Average) | 1.71 | 1.85 | 1.72 | -34.3 | 2.57 | 3.18 | 2.99 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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