Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Mar 31 2005

U.S. Personal Income Gain Light

Summary

Personal income rose 0.3% in February. The modest gain followed a 2.5% January decline in the wake of Microsoft's dividend payment. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% rise for February. Disposable personal income rose 0.3% [...]


Personal income rose 0.3% in February. The modest gain followed a 2.5% January decline in the wake of Microsoft's dividend payment. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% rise for February.

Disposable personal income rose 0.3% (5.6% y/y) but adjusted for price inflation rose just 0.1% (3.3% y/y).

Wage & salary income edged up just 0.2% (5.5% y/y) in February, one of the weaker gains of the last year. Wages in service producing industries rose 0.1% 6.0% y/y) and factory sector wages rose 0.2% (5.5% y/y).

Personal consumption rose an expected 0.5%. Durable goods spending rose 0.9% (3.7% y/y) and spending on nondurables rose 0.6%, lifted by a 4.3% jump in gasoline prices. Services spending rose 0.5% (5.2% y/y).

The PCE chain price index rose 0.3% in February but less food & energy inflation eased slightly to 0.2%

Disposition of Personal Income Feb Jan Y/Y 2004 2003 2002
Personal Income 0.3% -2.5% 5.8% 5.6% 3.2% 1.8%
Personal Consumption 0.5% 0.1% 5.8% 6.0% 5.2% 4.6%
Savings Rate 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 2.0%
PCE Chain Price Index 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4%
  Less food & energy 0.2% 0.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief