Global| Aug 07 2008U.S. Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Rose
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that the June level of pending sales of existing homes rose 5.3%. That reversed the 4.9% decline during May which was unrevised. The latest increase compared to Consensus expectations for [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that the June level of pending sales of existing homes rose 5.3%. That reversed the 4.9% decline during May which was unrevised. The latest increase compared to Consensus expectations for a 1.0% drop.
These figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. The series dates back to 2001.
The regional sales figures indicated that sales in the South recovered all of their May decline with a 9.3% increase while sales in the Northeast nearly recovered two months of decline with a 3.4% rise. Sales in the Midwest posted a weak 1.3% rise on the heels of a 6.0% May drop and sales in the West continued to recover. They posted a 4.6% gain to the highest level in twelve months.
The Realtors association indicated in an earlier report that the number of homes on the market & available for sale ticked up a not seasonally adjusted 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after a 1.5% decline during May.
At the current sales rate there was an 11.1 months' supply of homes on the market versus an 8.9 months' average during all of last year, a 6.5 months' supply in 2006 and a 4.5 months' supply in 2005.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database and the number of homes on the market are in the REALTOR database.
Rational Real Estate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.
| Pending Home Sales (2001=100) | June | May | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 89.0 | 84.5 | -12.2% | 95.7 | 112.1 | 124.3 |
| Northeast | 79.6 | 77.0 | -15.4 | 85.6 | 98.5 | 108.3 |
| Midwest | 79.6 | 78.6 | -13.3 | 89.6 | 102.0 | 116.4 |
| South | 92.4 | 84.5 | -16.6 | 107.3 | 127.3 | 134.8 |
| West | 101.0 | 96.6 | -1.8 | 92.1 | 109.5 | 128.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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