Global| Mar 06 2008U.S. Pending Home Sales Unchanged in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that the January level of pending sales of existing homes was unchanged from December. The reading contrasted slightly with Consensus expectations for a modest decline. The latest level [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that the January level of pending sales of existing homes was unchanged from December. The reading contrasted slightly with Consensus expectations for a modest decline. The latest level also was unchanged from last year's low reached in August.
These figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Dept. They measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed.
In contrast to the stability in overall sales, pending home sales in the Northeast continued to fall. The 4.1% m/m January decline was the sixth in the last seven months and sales were down 40.1% from the monthly peak early in 2005. Sales in the South also were quite weak in January and fell 6.1% m/m, the fourth down month in a row. Sales were off 35.5% from the 2005 peak.
Sales in the Midwest recently have shown some stability. They rose 0.6% in January and were up 7.4% from the low last August. Nevertheless, sales were one third lower than the 2004 peak. Out West sales recovered in January. The 13.0% rise was first m/m gain on record but sales were still 44.6% below the late 2005 peak.
The Realtors also indicated in an earlier report that the number of homes on the market and available for sale rose 5.5% (18.4% y/y) in January.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database and the number of homes on the market are in the REALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (2001=100) | January | December | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 85.9 | 85.9 | -19.6% | 95.7 | 112.1 | 124.3 |
| Northeast | 69.6 | 72.6 | -28.0 | 85.6 | 98.5 | 108.3 |
| Midwest | 85.2 | 84.7 | -13.3 | 89.6 | 102.0 | 116.4 |
| South | 89.5 | 95.3 | -23.8 | 107.3 | 127.3 | 134.8 |
| West | 93.8 | 83.0 | -12.7 | 92.3 | 109.5 | 128.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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