Global| Jul 29 2020U.S. Pending Home Sales Strengthen in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Pending home sales are at the highest level since February 2006. • Improvement continues throughout the country. The recovery in home sales is continuing as mortgage rates decline and the job market improves. The National [...]
• Pending home sales are at the highest level since February 2006.
• Improvement continues throughout the country.
The recovery in home sales is continuing as mortgage rates decline and the job market improves. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales in June increased 16.6% (6.3% y/y) to the highest level since February 2006. Sales have risen by roughly two-thirds from their April low.
Pending home sales continued to rise across the country led by a 54.4% jump in the Northeast (-0.9% y/y) to the highest level since February. In the Midwest, sales strengthened 12.2% (5.1% y/y) to the highest level since February 2017. Sales improved 11.9% (10.3% y/y) in the South to a record high and they gained 11.7% (4.7% y/y) in the West to a seven-month high.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity anticipates the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, % chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 16.6 | 44.3 | -21.8 | 6.3 | 1.1 | -4.1 | -0.8 |
| Northeast | 54.4 | 45.1 | -48.2 | -0.9 | 0.8 | -5.0 | 0.6 |
| Midwest | 12.2 | 37.2 | -15.9 | 5.1 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -2.5 |
| South | 11.9 | 43.2 | -15.4 | 10.3 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 0.6 |
| West | 11.7 | 56.2 | -20.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | -7.3 | -2.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
