Global| Jul 01 2009U.S. Pending Home Sales Stable At Their Highest Level Since September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The moderate rebound in housing activity continued last month. The National Association of Realtors reported that May pending sales of existing homes held roughly stable with April at the highest level since last September. Consensus [...]
The moderate rebound in housing activity continued last month. The National Association of Realtors reported that May pending sales of existing homes held roughly stable with April at the highest level since last September. Consensus expectations had been for a slight 0.5% increase in May sales.
Last month's stability in overall home sales was reflective of gains in two of the country's regions and declines in the other two. In the Northeast sales rose slightly to the highest level since November of 2007. In the West sales recovered further from the February low. Elsewhere, sales in the Midwest fell slightly but were at their highest since mid-2007 while sales in the South fell as well m/m.
The home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. The series dates back to 2001.
The latest monthly gains in home sales have been accompanied by some stability in home prices. The median sales price of an existing home increased 3.8% in May (-16.8% y/y) and prices have been flat-to-up slightly so far this year. That latest increase reduced slightly the affordability index of a home but it nevertheless remained up by 32.2% year-to-year and by three quarters from the 2006 low. The latest level was near the record high for the series which extends back to 1970.
The Realtors Association indicated in an earlier report that the number of homes on the market and available for sale slipped m/m and was down 15.3% versus one year earlier. At the current sales rate there was a 9.6 months' supply of homes on the market which was near the lowest since August 2007 but still up from the 8.9 months supply during all of 2007 and 6.5 months during 2006. At the high, there was a 10.4 months supply during all of last year.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. The number of homes on the market and prices are in the REALTOR database.
Bank Credit Standards from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
| Pending Home Sales (2001=100) | May | April | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 90.7 | 90.6 | 6.7% | 86.8 | 95.8 | 112.1 |
| Northeast | 80.9 | 78.5 | 6.7 | 72.6 | 85.6 | 98.5 |
| Midwest | 89.2 | 90.4 | 11.5 | 80.6 | 89.5 | 102.0 |
| South | 92.6 | 94.2 | 7.9 | 89.8 | 107.3 | 127.3 |
| West | 96.9 | 94.8 | 0.7 | 99.3 | 92.1 | 109.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
