Global| Feb 27 2015U.S. Pending Home Sales Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes rebounded 1.7% during January, recouping a 1.5% December decline, last month reported as a 3.7% drop. These sales are reported as an index [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes rebounded 1.7% during January, recouping a 1.5% December decline, last month reported as a 3.7% drop. These sales are reported as an index with 2001=100. The January value was 104.2, down 18.0% from the peak of 127.0 in April 2005. It nevertheless remained up by 35.1% from the recession low of 77.1 in June 2010.
Home sales in the South gained 3.2% (9.7% y/y) to the highest level since April 2010, ahead of the expiration of a first-time home-buyers tax credit. Home sales in the West gained 2.2% (11.4% y/y) after three months of decline. In the Northeast, home sales improved just 0.1% (6.9% y/y) and thus remained near the lowest level since June. Home sales in the Midwest fell 0.7% (+4.2% y/y), about as they did in December.
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
Remarks at the 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum by William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Pending Home Sales (%, SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.7 | -1.5 | 0.4 | 8.4 | -3.3 | 4.5 | 11.3 |
| Northeast | 0.1 | -3.6 | 0.5 | 6.9 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 16.6 |
| Midwest | -0.7 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 4.2 | -5.7 | 10.4 | 17.7 |
| South | 3.2 | -1.0 | 0.7 | 9.7 | -1.5 | 5.4 | 12.7 |
| West | 2.2 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 11.4 | -5.9 | -3.6 | 1.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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