Global| Sep 09 2008U.S. Pending Home Sales in July Reversed June Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors reported that the July change in pending sales of existing homes reversed about half of the prior month's increase. The decline of 3.2% was larger than Consensus expectations for a 1.3% drop. These [...]
The National Association of Realtors reported that the July change in pending sales of existing homes reversed about half of the prior month's increase. The decline of 3.2% was larger than Consensus expectations for a 1.3% drop.
These figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. The series dates back to 2001.
The regional sales figures indicated that lower sales in the West, -10.6% m/m, accounted for much of the July decline following improvement earlier this year. Sales in the North east also fell by 7.5% and that reversed the improvement during the prior four months. Sales in the Midwest rose 2.8% but have moved sideways so far this year. Sales in the South remained unchanged versus June but year-to-date have shown some improvement.
The Realtors association indicated in an earlier report that the number of homes on the market & available for sale rose a not seasonally adjusted 3.9% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.3% uptick during June.
At the current sales rate there was an 11.2 months' supply of homes on the market versus an 8.9 months' average during all of last year, a 6.5 months' supply in 2006 and a 4.5 months' supply in 2005.
The median sales price of an existing single family home fell 1.3% (-7.7% y/y) during July and prices were down 8.0% from their peak in June of last year.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database and the number of homes on the market are in the REALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (2001=100) | July | June | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 86.5 | 89.4 | -6.8% | 95.7 | 112.1 | 124.3 |
| Northeast | 73.6 | 79.6 | -13.2 | 85.6 | 98.5 | 108.3 |
| Midwest | 81.6 | 79.4 | -2.4 | 89.6 | 102.0 | 116.4 |
| South | 93.7 | 93.7 | -13.3 | 107.3 | 127.3 | 134.8 |
| West | 90.3 | 101.0 | 6.5 | 92.1 | 109.5 | 128.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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