Global| Feb 29 2016U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes declined 2.5% in January (+1.4% y/y) following December's revised 0.9% improvement, which was initially reported as 0.1%. The January sales [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes declined 2.5% in January (+1.4% y/y) following December's revised 0.9% improvement, which was initially reported as 0.1%. The January sales volume was 4.7% below the peak nine months ago. Expectations, according to a Wall Street Journal survey, were for an increase of 0.5%. These sales are reported as an index with 2001=100. The January value of 106.8 was 37.5% higher than the June 2010 low.
Regionally, January sales generally declined. Sales in the Midwest were off 4.9% after a 0.5% gain while sales in the West fell 4.5%, down for the third straight month. Sales in the Northeast declined 3.2%, but were 10.9% improved from twelve months earlier, and sales in the South edged 0.3% higher (-1.3% y/y).
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Census Bureau. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (%, SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -2.5 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 8.0 | -4.4 | 5.0 |
| Northeast | -3.2 | 5.9 | -1.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | -1.4 | 7.0 |
| Midwest | -4.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 7.3 | -6.3 | 11.3 |
| South | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | -1.3 | 7.1 | -2.0 | 6.0 |
| West | -4.5 | -1.0 | -3.5 | 0.4 | 10.4 | -8.7 | -3.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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