Global| Nov 29 2018U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline to Four-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales during October declined 2.6% to the lowest level since July 2014. Sales were off 6.7% y/y and the fall reversed a little-revised September rise. The index [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales during October declined 2.6% to the lowest level since July 2014. Sales were off 6.7% y/y and the fall reversed a little-revised September rise. The index level fell to 102.1 in October (2001=100) which was 9.6% below the peak in April 2016.
The decline in pending home sales was paced by an 8.9% fall (-15.3% y/y) in the West to the lowest level since September 2007. Pending home sales in the Midwest declined 1.8% (-4.9% y/y) to the weakest level in six months. In the South, pending home sales fell 1.1% (-4.6% y/y) and were at the lowest level since September of last year. Increasing by 0.7% (-2.9% y/y) were pending home sales in the Northeast. They remained 8.2% below the February 2017 high.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 102.1 | 104.8 | 104.1 | -6.7 | 109.0 | 109.8 | 108.8 |
| Northeast | 92.9 | 92.3 | 92.7 | -2.9 | 97.2 | 96.4 | 90.8 |
| Midwest | 100.4 | 102.2 | 101.2 | -4.9 | 104.8 | 107.4 | 107.1 |
| South | 118.9 | 120.2 | 121.3 | -4.6 | 123.8 | 122.9 | 123.1 |
| West | 84.8 | 93.1 | 89.1 | -15.3 | 99.6 | 102.4 | 102.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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