Global| Mar 27 2014U.S. Pending Home Sales Continue to Fall From June High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes moved 0.8% lower during February, the eighth strait monthly decline. The 0.2% January drop was revised from a 0.1% uptick reported last [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes moved 0.8% lower during February, the eighth strait monthly decline. The 0.2% January drop was revised from a 0.1% uptick reported last month. Sales have fallen 15.3% since the peak last June. Expectations had been for a 0.2% rise according to Bloomberg.
Home sales were mixed across the country last month. In the South, sales fell 4.0% (-9.3% y/y) following a 3.1% January rise. Sales remained down 11.8% from the May peak. In the Northeast, a 2.4% decline (-7.4% y/y) pulled sales 14.4% below the peak last April. In the Midwest, sales firmed 2.8% (-8.5% y/y) following seven straight months of decline. Sales were off 15.5% since the May peak. In the West, sales gained 2.3% last month (-16.5% y/y), also after seven straight monthly declines. Sales were off by one-quarter from the peak
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.8 | -0.2 | -5.8 | -10.5 | 4.5 | 11.3 | 1.3 |
| Northeast | -2.4 | 2.3 | -7.3 | -7.4 | 6.1 | 16.6 | -4.0 |
| Midwest | 2.8 | -2.7 | -5.2 | -8.5 | 10.4 | 17.7 | 2.2 |
| South | -4.0 | 3.1 | -5.7 | -9.3 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 |
| West | 2.3 | -4.8 | -5.9 | -16.5 | -3.6 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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