Global| Jan 03 2013U.S. Payrolls Show A Surprisingly Firm Increase in ADP Survey
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Private sector payrolls jumped 215,000 last month according to the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. The gain followed an upwardly revised 148,000 November increase and easily outpaced consensus expectations for a 135,000 rise, [...]
Private sector payrolls jumped 215,000 last month according to the
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. The gain followed an upwardly
revised 148,000 November increase and easily outpaced consensus
expectations for a 135,000 rise, according to the Action Economics survey.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce December payroll
employment tomorrow and a 45,000 rise is anticipated. During the last ten
years there has been a 96% correlation between the monthly ADP and the BLS
figures.
The survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities reported before. Extensive information on the methodology is given on the ADP website, here.
Service-producing payrolls again led the gain with a 187,000 (1.7% y/y) during December. Goods-producing payrolls increased 28,000 (0.7% y/y), but manufacturing payrolls fell 11,000 (-0.0% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 38,000 (1.9% y/y). Amongst small businesses payrolls rose 25,000 (1.3% y/y). Medium sized firms jumped 102,000 (1.3% y/y) and large-size companies posted a 88,000 (2.4% y/y) gain.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures in the new series date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here .
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 215 | 148 | 159 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | -0.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 25 | 37 | 55 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.8 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 102 | 40 | 26 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -0.6 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 88 | 71 | 78 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 28 | 8 | 10 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | -4.3 |
| Manufacturing | -11 | -13 | -8 | -0.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | -2.7 |
| Service-Producing | 187 | 140 | 149 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -0.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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